Hugh Hewitt at the Orange County Central Committee meeting

Last night I attended the Orange County (California) Central Committee meeting as a visitor. The keynote speaker was Hugh Hewitt, who gave a brief commentary on the election just passed.

In particular, he wanted to highlight a few troubling things.

The Youth Vote

As Hewitt noted, young voters didn't turn out in the numbers that some pundits predicted, but they did vote for Obama 66% to 32%. Young voters eventually turn into middle aged voters, and so on, and so on. If we do not figure out win a greater percentage of the young vote, the future will be that much more difficult for Republicans. The middle aged voters of today (according to historical voter trends) voted for Reagan and Bush (41). Reagan did well with the youth vote, so it isn't merely the age of the candidate - it is also the message.

The Latino Vote

John McCain won only 33% of the Latino vote. Given the demographic trends, if we do not figure out how reach out to Latino voters, we will be in the wilderness for a generation. It is impossible to win on the Electoral Map for a Republican without the Mountain West and the South. Latinos were a key demographic for Obama in Florida, Nevada, Colorado, and New Mexico. Keys to our outreach are the recruitment of Latino candidates, as well as focus on social issues and entrepreneurial issues. We also need to find away to talk about border security, as well as develop a strategy for those who are here illegally. Hewitt said that if Obama and the Democrats are smart, they will bring up immigration in the new Congress, and let the Republican Party tear itself to pieces.

Technology

The GOP had the edge in 2004 and 2000 in utilizing technology for identifying potential voters wit the Voter Vault system. This changed drastically. Obama was better at using new technologies such as social networking sites, twitter and texting. He was also able to perform better in non traditional media. Whereas Republicans held an edge in talk radio, Obama dominated on the internet through sites such as TPM and Kos. Republicans have got to get better at utilizing hardware such as iphones (he had several dedicated iphone apps), and blackberries.

Talk Radio

Despite the edge in talk radio, the Republican effort didn't utilize the medium as well as possible. For instance, Palin did not appear on Hewitt's show for nearly a month after she was announced.

Candidate Recruitment

The Democrats have excelled at recruitment for the past two cycles. It is time for the GOP to catch up.

Redistricting

The "Chicago Crowd" will come loaded for bear. The GOP better be ready to play, especially in regards to statewide races that will be realigned from safe seats under the new guidelines set in the election past.

All in all, Hewitt gave a thoughtful - if brief - synopsis of the challenges facing the GOP going forward out of this election.

Blurring distinctions on the three G's

One of the more fascinating aspects of this election cycle has been the ability of Obama to neutralize what has been the bane of Democrats in the last two presidential election cycles: the three G's of God, Guns, and Gays.

Clearly Obama is a man of faith, and has not been labeled as a sceptic of religion and faith. Yet on Gays and Guns his views have been a little bit more blurred. He proclaims to support Second Amendment rights, yet he has made statements that he would allow local authorities ("communities") to define to what extent the Second Amendment should be extended.

He has stated that he is opposed to gay marriage, and has been forceful in pointing this out on the stump. Yet this weekend, two and a half days before the election, his image is being used in an advertisement by the No on 8 campaign (see here). I guess that a talented talker (and Obama is certainly talented), could thread the needle and say that opposition to gay marriage and support of an initiative that would curtail gay marriage are not one and the same, and that the personal is not necessarily the policy.

It seems to me that Obama's statements on this subject are being tailored to a socially conservative audience that has been wary of Democrats that they perceive as being too liberal on social issues. It also seems to me that Obama intended for this audience to infer from his statements that his policy on gay marriage would not be any different than his personal beliefs.

It appears that this audience has been duped. However, Obama and the media will probably say that this audience is the victim of nuance they couldn't understand.

Certainly, if Obama is elected, there will be a great number of groups disappointed to find that he made opposing promises to both sides of an issue, and that one side will be left out in the cold. Yet shouldn't the media be demanding some reconciliation on some of these topics before the election, so the voters understand which Obama they are getting?